NFL Picks: Week 7, Presented By Kate Upton

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Mediocre week for nearly all of us (Bronny was 3-1, everyone else went 2-2). We’re getting there though. Eagles have a bye this so we decided to do some extra preparation for week 7, thanks to NFL Betting at Top Bet. We Scott did some top NFL research this week, and we’re bound for a special week in week 7.

AirPort’s Picks (@And_Porter)

Underdogs are winning with the spread like 60% of the time, or some ridiculous number like that (told you we did our research). I’m sticking with the dogs until proven otherwise. Gives you two chances to win. (Ps. I liked Seattle on Thursday night, +8.5. Hit that. Boom!)

Baltimore +7 at Houston

Two 5-1 teams, and a 7 point spread? Really? Baltimore can win the game, can’t they? Injuries, shminjuries. Ray Rice.

Cleveland +3 at Indy

This is my sneaky play of the week. Indy is a bad favorite. They’re just not good enough to be a favorite. Any team can beat Indy. I like the Browns in a sneaky, sneaky upset here.

Detroit +6 at Chicago

And again! Division game, Monday Night Football, either team can win the game. Gimme the 6 points!

Lock of the Week:

Washington +6 at New York Giants

Here we go again. Division battle, either team can win the game, gimme the points!

4 road dogs. Ballsy, I know.

Scott’s (formerly known as Wayne Kretzky which was dumb) Picks (@Skret16)

That’s gotta be the worst head-shot of all-time, right?

TB+ 3 vs NO

AirPort (<—that’s me!) and I talked on the radio show about how New Orleans is one of those teams that people just think or want to believe is good regardless of the reality. But the reality is that they’re just not that good and Tampa Bay is. Tampa, although 2-3, has quality losses: Giants (great team, held lead into the 4^th qtr), Dallas (still think Dallas is decent, single digit game), and Washington (looks to be a playoff contender, FG game). I think this line should be reversed but it’s not because the public will continue to bet New Orleans. Also, really concerning that Jimmy Graham is still not healthy AFTER a bye.

IND- 3 vs CLE

I like this one because I think you’re getting good value with this line because the public has, predictably, overreacted to one week. This line is saying that on a neutral field (home teams give 3 points), that these two teams are dead even. That’s just not true. Indy under-performed last week, a game after an extremely emotional win and Cleveland over-performed in a rivalry game at home in a must win situation. I think this line should be in the 4.5 5.5 range so I’ll take the -3.

BUF -3 vs TEN

Again I think there is some line value here. I don’t think Tennessee’s win over Pittsburgh was that impressive because Pittsburgh is overrated and that was a ‘Super Bowl’ type of game for them. If Tennessee had lost that game this line would be somewhere between 4.5 and 6 so I’ll take the Bills.

LOCK

ARZ +7 vs MIN

I’m not ready to say that the Cardinals aren’t good yet. Remember two weeks ago when all the national talk was about their elite defense? Well, key interior linemen Darnell Dockett has been banged up the last two weeks and is reportedly healthy now. This is also a decent matchup for the Cards because their speed on defense should be able to contain Percy Harvin. And although Minnesota’s offense has impressed, I don’t see them as a unit really capable of blowing teams out. I expect this to be a close game so I really like getting a TD here.

Ahlby’s Picks (@Mahlbs10)

Baltimore Ravens +7 vs. Houston Texans

Kind of a gut feeling here that the Ravens will keep the game close even with out Ray Lewis. I’m taking the Ravens with +7 points.

Green Bay Packers -6 vs. St. Louis Rams

Green Bay finally clicked on all cylinders last week. That. Is. Scary. They will cover the -6 points.

Detroit Lions +6 vs. Chicago Bears

Tough division matchup. Lions will keep it a close. Take the +6 point line.

Herbstreet’s Picks (@RyanHerber)

Baltimore +7 vs. Houston

So Baltimore got knocked down last week with a few key injuries. I think the line makers are over compensating on bets against Baltimore here with this line. Every game Baltimore has been in they’ve kept within 6 points except 1 where they blew Cincinnati out. I’m not saying they’ll win but they’ll keep it close.

New York Jets +11 vs. New England

11 points is a lot for an NFL game. The Jets are bad but they’re not 11 point underdog bad. Tebow Time

Green Bay -6 vs. St. Louis

I’m surprised the line isn’t higher for this game which is scaring me a little. But I’m still going with it. I believe in Aaron Rodgers (my fantasy team believes in Aaron Rodgers) and the GB receiving corps (get healthy soon Greg Jennings). The Pack by double digits.

Lock of the Week:

New York Giants -6 vs. Washington

Eli has looked strong recently which doesn’t look good for the worst pass defense in the league.  On the other side, I’m still not on the RG3 bandwagon. He has yet to beat a “good” team. Washington gets blown out on the road.

 (Silent) Squeak’s Picks (@Tepel03_TSP)

New Orleans -3 at Tampa Bay

Washington +6 at New York Giants

Pittsburgh -1.5 at Cincinnati

Lock of the Week:

Detroit at Chicago (-6)

Ps. #BIRDBOWL13

Bronny’s Picks (@Jawn_Brostein)

Shout out to Lindsay Horne

Buffalo (-3) v. Tennessee

I just have a feeling about this game.  Buffalo stinks but Tennessee doesn’t have a quarterback.  I think the defensive line of Buffalo finally starts to get it together after the big OT win last week in ARI and the Bills win by a touchdown at home.

Indy (-3) v. Cleveland

Indy at home is a different team than Indy on the road.  Sure they struggled last week, but that game was on the road.  This week, they’re at home, where Luck thrives, playing against the Browns, who suck.  Perfect recipe for a cover here.  #ChuckStrong

Chicago (-6) v. Detroit

If there’s one thing I learned from last week it’s that Detroit absolutely sucks.  The penalties they take are absolutely atrocious.  And that was them coming off a bye week.  This is a divisional game, in Chicago, with the Bears coming off a bye week, and the Bears are good.  Bears by 10 on Monday night.

Lock of the Week:

Washington (+6) v. NYG

NFC East games are always close.  I don’t love Washington this year, but I don’t love New York, either.  I think last week was more the exception than the rule for them.  Washington keeps it close in the Meadowlands.

HOME team in CAPS
*=Lock of the Week

Most common pick: Bal +7, Was +6

Most common lock: 2 have Was +6, but 1 has the Giants -6.

Recommendation: We’re gonna have a great week. About 18-6 combined, I’d say.

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