NFL Picks: Week 5, Still Presented By Miss Upton

It was the god damn refs! I knew it! Collectively, we went 16-8 last week, and 5-1 with our “locks”. It’s a new day people, it’s a new day. Listen up. It’s time to win some money.

We can’t make any promises though, just picks:

AirPort’s Picks (@And_Porter)

Woooo! 3-1 last week, and got my lock right. Back up to 6-9-1 on the season, and will be back to .500 after week 5. Book it.

Miami at Cincy (-4)

I keep betting against Miami, and I keep losing, but I’m stubborn. I watched ‘Hard Knocks’ and the Dolphins stink. Tannehill? Come on. Miami struggles mightily against the pass, and I think Daulton/Green have big days, respectively. Bengals win by at least a TD.

Tennessee at Minnesota (-6)

Don’t get cute here. It’s not as much of a trap game as you might think. The Titans are awful, and the Vikings are sneaky good. Ponder is playing well, AP is playing like AP, and Percy Harvin is quickly becoming one of the NFL’s best all-around offensive players. I like the Vikings to win big here.

Seattle at Carolina (-3)

Carolina is coming off a tough loss against divisional rival, and 4-0, Atlanta Falcons. The Panthers bounce back at home and get a big W.

Lock of the Week

Green Bay -7 at Indianapolis

It’s breakout time for Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson, and the Green Bay Packers. Huge, blow-out win for the Pack this week.

Scott’s (formerly known as Wayne Kretzky which was dumb) Picks (@Skret16)

That’s gotta be the worst head-shot of all-time, right?

Another good week for me at 3-1. Could have, and probably should have went 4-0 with that Packers game. 3-1 is still pretty good though so I’ll take it. On to week 3.

TEN +6 vs MIN

I think this is a let-down spot  for Minnesota here. They’re 3-1, and if you extrapolate (fancy, I know) that over the course of the season that would mean that they go 12-4. I think the Vikings are a competitive team but eventually settle in the 8 or 9 win range. I also wouldn’t overreact  too much to Tennessee’s blowout loss vs. Houston last week because Houston has been doing that to everyone. This will be a field goal game so take the points.

HOU -9 vs the Jets

I’m usually the type of better that looks for inefficiencies and attacks them, meaning going against what the public and ESPN is clamoring about because that usually inflates the spreads by a point or so. However in this case, I just can’t. The Jets are flat out dog shit.  Just absolutely no talent on either side on the ball. I also really think this whole Rex Ryan thing is getting stale. He’s been preaching the same nonsense for years now and I don’t think the guys react to it anymore. I think this is game is the apex of the Jets struggles. Prime time against a really, really good team. Houston wins this in a blowout, everyone declares the Jets done, and then…..

NYG -9 vs CLE

I’ve been seeing a lot of people getting cute this week and taking Cleveland with the points here. They almost beat Baltimore. The Giants couldn’t beat the Eagles. No Hakeem Nicks. Injuries to the Offensive Line. Injuries to the Secondary. Wah. Wah. Wah. This is exactly the scenario where the Giants do show up. When they have injuries and when they are being picked against. I’m calling for a blowout win for the Giants with touchdowns from guys you and I have never heard of.

LOCK

NE-7 vs DEN

I have a good feel for this New England team. I think I’ve bet them every week this year and half of my fantasy lineup is made up of Patriots. Look at what I predicted with them last week. I said we finally see a Patriots “Eff you” game and Brady goes for 350 and 3. Well, Brady we went for 340 and 3 and they piled it on the Bills, throwing for a touchdown up 3 scores with under 4 minutes to go. My thoughts here? The Pats roll. Last week felt like the offense finally hit their groove. I think that they will build on that even more here against an average Denver defense. Also, I’m not getting fooled by Denver’s win last week. It was a really good spot for them. They were home coming off of two bad losses. Teams in that spot generally play well. Pats drop the hammer on Denver, 42-10.

Ahlby’s Picks (@Mahlbs10)

Herbstreet’s Picks (@RyanHerber)

Cincinnati -4 vs. Miami

One of my bets against the Dolphins has to go right… Cincinnati comes in winning 3 games in a row. A.J. Green will find himself open all day against that dismal Miami defense. Cincinnati wins big.

Cleveland +9 at NY Giants

Cleveland is 0-4 this year but all of the games they’ve played so far they’ve kept the margin within 10 points. And those are against some pretty solid teams. Ultimately I think Cleveland loses but keeps it close.

Seattle +3 at Carolina

Seattle has one of the best statistical defenses in the league this year, while Carolina has one of the worst. I see Seattle running the ball using up a lot of clock keeping the ball out of Newton’s hands. Seattle with the outright win at home.

Lock:

New Orleans -4 vs. San Diego

Even with all that’s happened with the Saints in the past year I would never have imagined them starting off the season 0-4. How can they start off the season

 (Silent) Squeak’s Picks (@Tepel03_TSP)

Ravens -6 at KC

Eagles +3.5 at Steelers

#BIRDSBOWL13

Saints -4 vs. SD

Bears -5.5 at Jags

Bronny’s Picks (@Jawn_Brostein)

Shout out to Lindsay Horne

Washington (+3) against Atlanta

Something about this line just makes me think that the Redskins are going to keep this close.  Atlanta should have lost last week to Carolina at home and I don’t think is the 4-0 team that everyone makes them out to be.  Atlanta – good team, not great.  RGIII, like Cam, keeps it close against the dirty birds.

Baltimore (-6) against KC

I’ve picked KC twice this year and have been let down twice.  I’m over the Chiefs who, with the Browns, could end up fighting for the worst record in football this year.  They are awful.  But they did beat the Saints in the Superdome right?  Shit, what do I know anyway?

New York Jets (+9) against Houston

I’m picking this solely because if the Jets lose by more than 9 at home, on MNF, it’s going to be the biggest story of the week.  9 points is a lot of points everyone.  I just don’t see the Jets getting blown out at home on back to back weeks.  Give me the points and a prayer.

Lock:

New Orleans (-4) against San Diego – No way the Saints start the season 0-3 at home and 0-5 overall.  There’s just too much talent on this team.  I love the way they played last weekend at GB and think they can keep the swag going a little bit.  Sean Payton and the rest of the Bounty Boyz will be in the house to watch Drew Brees pass Unitas for most consecutive games with a TD pass in NFL history.  There’s going to be a lot of energy in the stadium.  I like the Saints by at least a touchdown.

Have a great weekend.  I love you all.

HOME team in CAPS
*Lock of the Week

Most common pick: CIN -4, Bal -6, NO -4

Most common lock: NO -4

Recommendation: No clue

Combined: 39-54-3…getting better

Last Week combined: 16-8! Told ya!

Go State, Go Birds.