TSP’s NFL Picks Presented by Kate Upton: Week 1

It took much convincing, but we caved, and allowed Kate to pay us $1,000 per week to sponsor this post (We usually don’t sell out like that, but she was very nice and convincing). All she asks of us, is that we post a new picture of her each week. Fine Kate, if you insist. 

So I went back on forth on whether or not I wanted to do an NFL picks column this year, and decided to go for it. Only reason I considered not doing it, is because every site and their bubbie’s site does NFL picks. Everyone thinks they’re the best gambler in the world, but no one ever wins. Except Vegas. And me.

But, this isn’t just simply an NFL picks column. This column will give the picks of all the TSP writers, not just me (this is AirPort by the way—-I am also “TSP” at times when I don’t feel like logging out and logging back on as AirPort so now you know) throughout the year, so while you’ll get to see who is the best at picking NFL games, you’ll also get to further familiarize yourselves with the great personalities of TSP. Oh, and a Kate Upton picture (giving you your money’s worth, Kate!)

Week 1 in the NFL season is always extremely difficult, and most people get killed week 1 because they can’t wait for football and just want to bet everything. No one really knows anything about any team, we all just think we know.

We have no credentials. We have no expert analysis. We are the same as you—mostly college kids (some graduates), who like to gamble and have some fun, just picking football games. Only difference between us and you is, we have a blog. You don’t.

Ps. I know you’re gonna love the awkward head shots…

AirPort’s Picks (@And_Porter)

Ahhh, football. Man it’s just good to be back watching football on Sunday’s. Feels like it’s been forever. I have a general rule for week 1: when it doubt, take the points. Week 1 carries so much uncertainty. Last year means shit. Absolutely nothing. So I like taking points in week 1 (generally speaking that is—I wouldn’t bet every dog), until we start to get a better feel for most of the teams.

Without further ado…

Colts (+10) at the Bears

10 points is a lot of points. I actually think the Colts have a shot at winning this game. Andrew Luck is the real deal. Everybody is high on him for good reason. At worst, he keeps it close. 10 points people! Let the Bears win 30-21. Gimme the points!

Bills (+3) at the Jets

The Jets stink. They’re dreadful. They can’t score. On the flip side, I really like Buffalo’s offense. I like Fitzpatrick, I like the tandem of Jackson/Spiller out of the backfield, and I like Buffalo in a route.

Chargers at the Raiders (-1)

San Diego always starts the season off slow. Always. Monday night, in Oakland, that place should be rocking. Carson Palmer has had a full off-season to prepare with those young receivers, and it looks like McFadden is healthy and ready to go. Oakland by a touchdown.

Lock of the Week:

Falcons at the Chiefs (+3)

Oh baby. This is exactly the kind of game I’m looking for. People love Atlanta for whatever reason. They’re a sexy team. Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Julio Jones, Roddy White. They’re fun. But they’ve been overrated for two years, and they don’t really play defense. Kansas City, on  the flip side, is flying under the radar…I think. The tandem of Charles/Hillis is deadly. They have a good young receiving core, led by Dwayne Bowe, and Arrowhead is one of the toughest placest to play in the NFL. KC wins this game straight up, but I’ll take the 3 points if you’re gonna give them to me.

Scott’s (formerly known as Wayne Kretzky which was dumb) Picks (@Skret16)

That’s gotta be the worst head-shot of all-time, right?

Colts +10 at Bears

This one just jumped to 10, a huge difference in the betting world from 9. I said it on the podcast and I’ll say it again here, the Colts are going to be good! Kids, listen. Andrew Luck is going to good right away. He would have been good right away last year. The way the college game has changed in recent years, QB’s are coming in to the league ready to play right away. Especially, in Luck’s case. This team won’t look anything like they did last year so take the points and consider the money line as well.

Raiders -1 vs the Chargers

The Chaagers are a mess. Norv turner should have been fired two years ago. Plus, something just seems off with Phillip Rivers. I need to see him come out and perform before I anoint him ‘back’. The Chargers will also be starting Ronnie fucking Brown at running back. Ronnie Brown. I’ll take the more talented team at home in virtually a pick.

Eagles-9 at the Browns

This would have been my lock of the week if it weren’t Joe Haden appealing his suspension. In the words of the great Matthew Berry I think the hate’s gone a little too far on our boy Mike Vick. Remember, he was the first overall pick in fantasy last year. I think we see more 2010 Vick than 2011 Vick. I also really like the Eagles when expectations are ‘relatively’ low. Birds by double digits.

Ahlberg’s Picks (@Mahlbs10)

Patriots (-6) at the Titans

The Titans are going to be an improved team in Mike Munchak’s second year as a head coach, but they will have a tough task with an improved Patriots team. The Patriots have a young defense that is starting to come together and Bill Bellichick is always tough on a Rookie QB. Don’t forget the Patriots still have one of the top 2 or 3 offenses in the league and have added Brandon Lloyd to that potent passing attack. Look for the Pats to start off strong and cover the -6 line on the road.

Redskins at the Saints (-7.5)

The Saints were the topic of the offseason with the Drew Brees holdout and “Bounty Gate,” but Drew Brees will have his troops ready to go. They will look to slow down the rookie sensation RGIII on defense and Drew Brees should pick up right where he left off and put up lots of points on an average Redskins defense. Don’t forget that New Orleans is one of the, if not the hardest place to play on the road. They should come out with a lot of emotion and should cover the -7.5 line.

Bengals (+6) at the Ravens

The Bengals had a good season under rookie QB Andy Dalton and continued to improve over the offseason. The Ravens are a “Suggless” and aging defense and I believe that will show. Look for it to be a hard-nosed, close game like it usually is between these two teams, with the Bengals keeping it within 6 points.

Lock of the Week

Rams at the Lions (-7.5)

The Lions are at home and although I believe Sam Bradford will be improved, the Lions passing attack will be too much for a weak Rams secondary. Look for Megatron to have a huge day and for the Lions to easily cover the -7.5 line.

Herbstreet’s Picks (@RyanHerber)

Saints -7.5 vs. the Redskins

I’m going New Orleans for one reason—Drew Brees. RGIII is going into a tough environment in the Superdome.  Nobody in the NFL has had more of a tumultuous offseason then the Saints. Brees will come out firing and the Saints win big.

Raiders -1 vs. the Chargers

Run DMC is healthy?! And Ryan Mathews is hurt. Carson Palmer has had first full offseason learning the Raiders offense. He finally has a healthy backfield while Rivers is going to have to rely on Ronnie Brown?

Bills +3 at Jets

The line keeps falling in this game and I’m going to go along with it. I don’t see how the Mark Sanchez/ Tim Tebow thing is going to work out.  The Jets were dismal in the preseason offensively (yes I’m talking preseason).  I’m going with the Bills OUTRIGHT on the road.

Lock of the Week

Patriots -6 at the Titans

The Patriots are an elite team. No doubt about it. Tom Brady is going to make a MVP like statement and show the Patriots are for real. Jake Locker didn’t live up to his 1^st round potential last year and I don’t see it coming together this early in the season against an improved Patriots defense.

(Silent) Squeak’s Picks (@Tepel03_TSP)

Eagles (-9) at the Browns

#BIRDSBOWL13

Seahawks (-3) at the Cardinals

Dolphins at the Texans (-12)

Lock of the Week

Patriots (-6) at the Titans

Bronny’s Picks (@Jawn_Brostein)

Rams at the Lions (-7.5)

Offense is way too high-powered for st Louis. Blowout city.

Redskins (+7.5) at the Saints

Washington will be better than last year. RG3 has an unreal start before slowing late.

Bills (+3) at the Jets

The jets stink. Tebow experiment is the dumbest experiment since Herber tried to do a volcano in 6th grade.

Lock of the Week

Steelers at the Broncos (-2)

This is essentially a pick-em game and I think the steelers aren’t the same without Ryan Clark.

*Lock of the Week

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